Transportation
The transportation sector generates 37% of the GTHA’s emissions and is the second highest-emitting sector in the region after buildings. Apart from the 2020 global pandemic, transportation emissions have increased each year since 2015, when TAF began conducting regional carbon emissions inventories. In 2023, emissions increased 4.7% from 19.1 MtCO2eq to 20.0 MtCO2eq and have nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Transportation emissions increased across all six regions. On a per capita basis, transportation emissions increased 1.5% across the GTHA, ranging from a low of 1.77 tCO2eq per person in Toronto to a high of 3.55 tCO2eq per person in York.
In 2023, the GTHA’s population increased by 3% and per capita transportation emissions increased by 1.5%, indicating that population growth is not the only reason behind the rise in transportation emissions. Other factors that impact transportation emissions include the transportation mode split, number of trips per capita, fossil-fuel vehicle share, and freight activity. Although it is difficult to determine the exact contribution of each of these factors, it is likely that increased commuting related to return-to-offices has contributed to rising post-pandemic transportation emissions.
A total of 72,563 EVs were registered in the GTHA in 2023, representing a 50% increase over 2022. This is a trend in the right direction, but as EVs still make up only about 1% of total vehicle registrations, it is crucial that EV adoption continue to be accelerated through supportive policies and incentive programs. EV charging availability must also continue to ramp up to keep pace, particularly in multi-unit residential buildings where charging access has lagged behind other building types.
Transit ridership increased in 2023
In 2023 TAF was able to expand the number of transit agencies included in this inventory, which encompasses ridership data from agencies operating within each of the six GTHA regions. In 2023, GTHA transit ridership increased 28%. Compared to 2021, when ridership reached a pandemic-induced low, ridership is up 99%. However, ridership still remains 20% below the pre-pandemic 2019 total. The total distance cycled by GTHA residents decreased 2% in 2023, while walking distance increased 1%. The total number of trips, both cycling (up 4%) and walking (up 7%) showed an increasing trend.
TAF quantifies Scope 3 aviation emissions from Toronto Pearson International Airport and Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport. In 2023 emissions rose by 25%, from 5.8 MtCO2eq to 7.3 MtCO2eq. In total, aviation emissions have more than tripled since 2021, when air travel reached its lowest point as a result of the pandemic. Emissions from Billy Bishop have rebounded back to its 2019 pre-pandemic total, while Pearson's emissions have reached 90% of its 2019 total. Emissions from John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport are not included in the inventory due to the lack of publicly available fuel use data. However, other sources have reported these emissions based on different methodologies and data sources than those used in this inventory.