Industry
Industrial emissions rose by 2.9% in 2023, from 7.3 to 7.5 MtCO2eq. At 14% of total emissions, industry is the third-highest emitting sector in the GTHA after buildings and transportation. Unlike those sectors, however, industrial activity and its related emissions are not distributed evenly across the region.
The largest sources of industrial emissions in the GTHA are steel and cement manufacturing, comprising roughly 70% of industrial emissions. The auto sector (Brampton Assembly Plant, Ford Oakville Assembly Plant, and Oshawa Assembly Plant) represented a small fraction of current industrial emissions (~2%). The GTHA’s steel industry is largely concentrated in Hamilton, while cement is predominantly produced at plants in Durham and Peel. Importantly, the steel and cement outputs from those regions are used in the rest of the GTHA and beyond.
Industrial emissions are sourced from the Government of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), which requires facilities emitting over 10 ktCO2eq to report their annual emission totals. This is an important resource for tracking and evaluating progress across the country’s largest industrial emitters. However, the collective emissions from facilities that emit less than 10 ktCO2eq (and are therefore not required to report to GHGRP) is still likely to be substantial.
Since the GHGRP is published on a two-year lag and facility reported emissions are not available at the time of TAF’s publication, we typically project emissions in the industrial sector. Historically, emissions projections based on job growth in cement and steel sectors have been close to actual emissions reported by facilities. In 2022, we projected a 4.9% increase, while recently released facility reported emissions data has shown a 1.9% decrease. Durham had the largest emissions decrease that year (down 11%), largely due to a significant emission reduction by St. Mary’s Bowmanville Cement Plant. Peel’s industrial emissions decreased 5%, primarily attributed to reductions at Ash Gove Mississauga Cement Plant, while Hamilton saw a 1% decrease in 2022, with the largest facility-level reduction coming from Stelco Hamilton Works’ steel fabrication plant. TAF will continue to monitor industrial emissions when facility reported data is released and refine our projections and methods, if needed.